NBA Playoff Picture · 2026-27
Five Eastern Conference teams are within a game of a top-six seed
Eastern Conference
Five Eastern Conference teams are within a game of a top-six seed
| Seed | Team | W-L | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top six | |||
| 1 | Detroit Pistons | 3-0 | >99% |
| 2 | Philadelphia 76ers | 3-1 | 97% |
| 3 | Atlanta Hawks | 2-1 | 91% |
| 4 | Toronto Raptors | 2-1 | 91% |
| 5 | Indiana Pacers | 2-1 | 54% |
| 6 | Charlotte Hornets | 2-1 | 13% |
| Playoff line | |||
| Play-in · GB to 6th in the first column | |||
| level with the line | Washington Wizards | 2-1 | 4% |
| half a game back | Boston Celtics | 1-1 | 98% |
| half a game back | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1-1 | 84% |
| 1 game back | Orlando Magic | 1-2 | 45% |
| Play-in line | |||
| Outside the field · GB to 6th in the first column | |||
| 1 game back | Chicago Bulls | 1-2 | <1% |
| 2 games back | New York Knicks | 0-3 | 93% |
| 2 games back | Milwaukee Bucks | 0-3 | <1% |
| 2 games back | Brooklyn Nets | 0-3 | <1% |
| 2 games back | Miami Heat | 0-3 | 33% |
Ordered by record, not by odds: the playoff line follows the standings.
Western Conference
Two Western Conference teams are within a game of a top-six seed
| Seed | Team | W-L | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top six | |||
| 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 3-0 | >99% |
| 2 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 3-0 | >99% |
| 3 | Los Angeles Lakers | 3-0 | 97% |
| 4 | Memphis Grizzlies | 3-0 | 15% |
| 5 | Houston Rockets | 3-0 | 99% |
| 6 | Portland Trail Blazers | 2-0 | 92% |
| Playoff line | |||
| Play-in · GB to 6th in the first column | |||
| 1 game back | Denver Nuggets | 1-1 | 95% |
| 1 game back | Phoenix Suns | 1-1 | 31% |
| 1.5 games back | San Antonio Spurs | 1-2 | >99% |
| 1.5 games back | LA Clippers | 1-2 | 8% |
| Play-in line | |||
| Outside the field · GB to 6th in the first column | |||
| 1.5 games back | Utah Jazz | 1-2 | 6% |
| 1.5 games back | Dallas Mavericks | 1-2 | 19% |
| 2.5 games back | New Orleans Pelicans | 0-3 | 1% |
| 2.5 games back | Golden State Warriors | 0-3 | 38% |
| 2.5 games back | Sacramento Kings | 0-3 | <1% |
Ordered by record, not by odds: the playoff line follows the standings.
Games to watch
Today's games with the most at stake in the race.
- Wizards at HornetsThe Hornets hold the last guaranteed Eastern Conference playoff spot
- Mavericks at HeatMavericks 19%, Heat 33% to make the playoffs
- Pacers at BucksBoth teams are in the Central
- Warriors at NuggetsThe Nuggets are 1 game back of the last guaranteed Western Conference playoff spot
How the race changed
Biggest changes since yesterday: Pacers up 15 to 54%, Magic up 12 to 45%, Raptors down 6 to 91%.
- Pacersup 1539% → 54%
- Magicup 1233% → 45%
- Grizzliesup 510% → 15%
- Lakersup 295% → 97%
- Clippersup 26% → 8%
- Raptorsdown 697% → 91%
- Knicksdown 598% → 93%
- Jazzdown 511% → 6%
- Hornetsdown 316% → 13%
- Heatdown 336% → 33%
9 teams did not move by a point.
Games that moved the race
Each badge is what that one game did to the team's playoff odds.
Phoenix Suns beat Golden State Warriors
Charlotte Hornets beat Miami Heat
San Antonio Spurs beat Dallas Mavericks
Orlando Magic beat New York Knicks
Los Angeles Lakers beat Utah Jazz
- Clinched mathematically in: the odds column says In
- In position above the playoff line today, not clinched
- seeds 7–10 play for the last two spots
- In the hunt below the line, still alive
- Eliminated mathematically out: the odds column says Out
Playoff odds: ESPN's Basketball Power Index · Updated
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the NBA playoff format work?
Seeds 1-6 in each conference qualify directly. Seeds 7-10 enter the Play-In Tournament: the 7/8 winner takes the No. 7 seed, and the loser gets a second chance against the 9/10 winner for the No. 8 seed.
What do the playoff odds mean?
The odds come from ESPN's Basketball Power Index: the chance, by their model, that a team reaches the postseason. They move as games finish, even on days a team does not play. The 7-day change and the trend line are from PaceToWin's own stored history of those numbers.
What does “GB to 6th” mean?
Games behind the 6th-place team — the last guaranteed playoff seed. This format gives no berth for division position, so every team in the conference chases the same line.
What does the “Odds, 7 days” column show?
How much a team's playoff odds have moved over the last seven days, from our own stored history. It is the part almost no other free site shows.
What does “In position” mean?
The team holds a playoff spot in today's standings but has not clinched it. “Clinched” only appears once it is mathematically certain.
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