Season Outlook
- Actual pace
- Projected
- League avg (.500)
- Playoff line
Straight-line pace — the current win rate extended over the full season, not a probability.
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The Astros are on pace for a 82-80 finish (50.3% win rate).
The Houston Astros are 75-74 through 149 games of the 2026 MLB season — a 50.3% win rate. That pace extends to a 82-80 finish, about 82 wins; the Projected Final Record tile above adds the model's view of the remaining schedule. Enter a hypothetical record below to see how their projected finish changes. Updated Sep 12, 2026, live from ESPN.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many wins are the Houston Astros on pace for in 2026?
Through 149 games the Houston Astros are 75-74. At that pace they project to finish 82-80 — about 82 wins over the 162-game season.
What is the Houston Astros' projected final record?
At their current pace, 82-80 (50.3% win rate), extrapolated from their 75-74 record. The PaceToWin model, which simulates the rest of the schedule, shows its own projection and likely range in the Projected Final Record tile above; the two differ when results have run ahead of or behind a team's underlying strength.
Are the Houston Astros on pace for a winning season?
Their projected 82 wins is above .500 for the 162-game season, so at their current pace the Houston Astros are on track for a winning record. See the Playoff odds meter above for their live playoff outlook.
How does PaceToWin project the Houston Astros?
PaceToWin takes the Houston Astros' current win rate and extends it across the full 162-game MLB season, then layers in point-differential (Pythagorean) expected wins and model-based playoff odds where available. Every number refreshes live from ESPN.