MLB Playoff Picture

2026

Playoff picture Standings

What's moving

Biggest playoff-odds swings over the last 7 days — the part standings tables don't show.

+32.7 San Diego Padres 83.9% now · 7-day swing Playoff odds over 22 days, 66.7% to 81.3%21d -28.0 Arizona Diamondbacks 22% now · 7-day swing Playoff odds over 22 days, 39.6% to 28.3%21d -19.4 Toronto Blue Jays 19.3% now · 7-day swing Playoff odds over 22 days, 13.9% to 24.4%21d +16.9 Cleveland Guardians 65% now · 7-day swing Playoff odds over 22 days, 49.0% to 62.3%21d +11.2 Texas Rangers 41.2% now · 7-day swing Playoff odds over 22 days, 44.0% to 37.3%21d -5.0 Philadelphia Phillies 94.6% now · 7-day swing Playoff odds over 22 days, 86.5% to 91.7%21d

Games that mattered

Recent results ranked by how much they moved the picture. The swing beside each team is the change since that game — the 7d column in the tables below covers a full week, so the two will differ.

Cleveland Guardians +12.6 beat Chicago White Sox -3.6
division game both in contention
Arizona Diamondbacks +12.7 beat Miami Marlins
Texas Rangers +10.5 beat Boston Red Sox
San Diego Padres -5.5 beat Colorado Rockies
division game
Houston Astros +2.1 beat Kansas City Royals

American League

Division leaders

TeamW-LPCTGB to top seedStreakProjPlayoff odds7dTrend (21d)Status
Tampa Bay Rays91-59.607–W498-64✓–Playoff odds over 22 days, clinched to clinchedIn
Chicago White Sox77-74.51014.5L183-7990.1%▼ -3.2Playoff odds over 22 days, 88.3% to 90.9%In
Houston Astros76-75.50315.5W182-8079.8%▼ -3.8Playoff odds over 22 days, 49.5% to 81.0%In

Wild card — 3 spots availableOrdered by record, not by odds — the cut line follows the standings.

TeamW-LPCTGB to WCStreakProjPlayoff odds7dTrend (21d)Status
New York Yankees88-63.583+11.5W394-68✓–Playoff odds over 22 days, clinched to clinchedIn
Boston Red Sox82-69.543+5.5L188-74✓▲ +0.1Playoff odds over 22 days, 99.5% to clinchedIn
Cleveland Guardians77-75.507–W182-8065.0%▲ +16.9Playoff odds over 22 days, 49.0% to 62.3%In
Texas Rangers75-76.4971.5W380-8241.2%▲ +11.2Playoff odds over 22 days, 44.0% to 37.3%Out
Toronto Blue Jays75-77.4932L280-8219.3%▼ -19.4Playoff odds over 22 days, 13.9% to 24.4%Out
Baltimore Orioles74-78.4873W279-833.1%▲ +1.0Playoff odds over 22 days, 11.8% to 2.6%Out
Detroit Tigers72-79.4774.5W677-851.3%▲ +1.3Playoff odds over 22 days, 4.2% to 1.2%Out
Minnesota Twins70-81.4646.5L375-870.1%▼ -3.5Playoff odds over 22 days, 16.5% to 0.1%Out
Seattle Mariners70-82.4617L375-870.1%▼ -0.6Playoff odds over 22 days, 23.1% to 0.3%Out
Kansas City Royals66-85.43710.5L371-910.0%–Playoff odds over 22 days, 0.1% to 0.0%Out
Athletics61-90.40415.5L165-970.0%–Playoff odds over 22 days, 0.0% to 0.0%Eliminated
Los Angeles Angels58-93.38418.5W262-1000.0%–Playoff odds over 22 days, 0.0% to 0.0%Eliminated

National League

Division leaders

TeamW-LPCTGB to top seedStreakProjPlayoff odds7dTrend (21d)Status
Milwaukee Brewers94-57.623–W1101-61✓–Playoff odds over 22 days, clinched to clinchedIn
Los Angeles Dodgers92-59.6092W299-63✓–Playoff odds over 22 days, clinched to clinchedIn
Atlanta Braves89-63.5865.5W195-67✓–Playoff odds over 22 days, 99.6% to clinchedIn

Wild card — 3 spots availableOrdered by record, not by odds — the cut line follows the standings.

TeamW-LPCTGB to WCStreakProjPlayoff odds7dTrend (21d)Status
Chicago Cubs84-68.553+1.5L190-7299.4%▲ +0.8Playoff odds over 22 days, 98.9% to 98.7%In
Philadelphia Phillies83-68.550+1L189-7394.6%▼ -5.0Playoff odds over 22 days, 86.5% to 91.7%In
San Diego Padres82-69.543–L188-7483.9%▲ +32.7Playoff odds over 22 days, 66.7% to 81.3%In
Arizona Diamondbacks80-72.5262.5L185-7722.0%▼ -28.0Playoff odds over 22 days, 39.6% to 28.3%Out
Pittsburgh Pirates75-76.4977L180-820.0%▼ -0.3Playoff odds over 22 days, 0.6% to 0.0%Out
Miami Marlins75-77.4937.5W180-820.0%▼ -0.1Playoff odds over 22 days, 5.2% to 0.0%Out
St. Louis Cardinals75-77.4937.5L180-820.0%▼ -0.1Playoff odds over 22 days, 2.9% to 0.0%Out
Washington Nationals71-81.46711.5W476-860.0%–Playoff odds over 22 days, 0.0% to 0.0%Eliminated
Cincinnati Reds70-81.46412L275-870.0%–Playoff odds over 22 days, 0.0% to 0.0%Eliminated
New York Mets69-82.45713L374-880.0%–Playoff odds over 22 days, 0.0% to 0.0%Eliminated
San Francisco Giants63-89.41419.5W167-950.0%–Playoff odds over 22 days, 0.0% to 0.0%Eliminated
Colorado Rockies56-95.37126W160-1020.0%–Playoff odds over 22 days, 0.0% to 0.0%Eliminated

Playoff odds: PaceToWin model · 7d = change over the last seven days

Frequently Asked Questions

How does the MLB playoff format work?

Twelve teams reach the postseason — six per league. The three division winners take seeds 1-3 and the three wild cards take seeds 4-6. The top two seeds get a first-round bye. Ties are settled mathematically (head-to-head first), not with a tiebreaker game.

What do the playoff odds mean?

The odds are the share of simulated seasons in which a team reaches the postseason. They update as games finish, which is why a team's number moves even on days it does not play — other results change the picture too.

What does “GB to WC” mean?

Games behind the last wild-card spot — not games behind the division leader. It is the number that actually matters in a wild-card chase: a team can be far back in its own division while sitting half a game from a playoff berth.

What does the 7d column show?

How much a team's playoff odds have moved over the last seven days, from our own stored history. It is the part almost no other free site shows.

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