MLB Playoff Picture

2026

Playoff picture Standings

What's moving

Biggest playoff-odds swings over the last 7 days — the part standings tables don't show.

-15.3 Texas Rangers 21% now · 7-day swing Playoff odds over 22 days, 37.0% to 20.8%21d +14.0 Cleveland Guardians 50% now · 7-day swing Playoff odds over 22 days, 19.7% to 47.7%21d +13.3 San Diego Padres 58.1% now · 7-day swing Playoff odds over 22 days, 55.0% to 57.0%21d +12.4 Houston Astros 91.5% now · 7-day swing Playoff odds over 22 days, 64.4% to 91.3%21d -8.6 Baltimore Orioles 3.8% now · 7-day swing Playoff odds over 22 days, 6.9% to 3.6%21d -6.9 Miami Marlins 0.1% now · 7-day swing Playoff odds over 22 days, 5.7% to 0.1%21d

Games that mattered

Recent results ranked by how much they moved the picture. The swing beside each team is the change since that game — the 7d column in the tables below covers a full week, so the two will differ.

San Diego Padres +10.3 beat Washington Nationals
crossed 50%
Houston Astros +7.1 beat Philadelphia Phillies -1.8
upset — winner had a 43% chance
Milwaukee Brewers beat Chicago Cubs -0.4
division game

American League

Division leaders

TeamW-LPCTGB to top seedStreakProjPlayoff odds7dTrend (21d)Status
Tampa Bay Rays87-59.596–L197-65✓–Playoff odds over 22 days, clinched to clinchedIn
Chicago White Sox75-71.51412L383-7990.2%▼ -0.1Playoff odds over 22 days, 87.5% to 93.1%In
Houston Astros75-72.51012.5W183-7991.5%▲ +12.4Playoff odds over 22 days, 64.4% to 91.3%In

Wild card — 3 spots availableOrdered by record, not by odds — the cut line follows the standings.

TeamW-LPCTGB to WCStreakProjPlayoff odds7dTrend (21d)Status
New York Yankees84-62.575+10.5W393-69✓–Playoff odds over 22 days, 99.9% to clinchedIn
Boston Red Sox80-67.544+6L288-7499.8%▲ +1.3Playoff odds over 22 days, 96.8% to clinchedIn
Cleveland Guardians74-73.503–L182-8050.0%▲ +14.0Playoff odds over 22 days, 19.7% to 47.7%In
Toronto Blue Jays73-74.4971L180-8238.1%▲ +3.4Playoff odds over 22 days, 25.4% to 38.5%Out
Texas Rangers72-75.4902L279-8321.0%▼ -15.3Playoff odds over 22 days, 37.0% to 20.8%Out
Baltimore Orioles71-76.4833W178-843.8%▼ -8.6Playoff odds over 22 days, 6.9% to 3.6%Out
Minnesota Twins69-77.4734.5L177-853.0%▼ -3.8Playoff odds over 22 days, 33.0% to 2.8%Out
Seattle Mariners69-78.4695W276-862.5%▼ -2.7Playoff odds over 22 days, 14.0% to 2.2%Out
Detroit Tigers67-79.4596.5W174-880.1%▼ -0.3Playoff odds over 22 days, 15.6% to 0.1%Out
Kansas City Royals65-82.4429W172-900.0%–Playoff odds over 22 days, 0.0% to 0.0%Out
Athletics59-88.40115W165-970.0%–Playoff odds over 22 days, 0.0% to 0.0%Out
Los Angeles Angels56-90.38417.5W262-1000.0%–Playoff odds over 22 days, 0.0% to 0.0%Eliminated

National League

Division leaders

TeamW-LPCTGB to top seedStreakProjPlayoff odds7dTrend (21d)Status
Milwaukee Brewers91-56.619–W3100-62✓–Playoff odds over 22 days, clinched to clinchedIn
Los Angeles Dodgers89-57.6101.5W799-63✓–Playoff odds over 22 days, clinched to clinchedIn
Atlanta Braves86-61.5855W195-6799.9%–Playoff odds over 22 days, 99.3% to clinchedIn

Wild card — 3 spots availableOrdered by record, not by odds — the cut line follows the standings.

TeamW-LPCTGB to WCStreakProjPlayoff odds7dTrend (21d)Status
Philadelphia Phillies82-65.558+3.5L190-7296.7%▼ -2.7Playoff odds over 22 days, 78.5% to 96.4%In
Chicago Cubs81-66.551+2.5L489-7396.7%▼ -1.9Playoff odds over 22 days, 98.8% to 96.9%In
San Diego Padres78-68.534–W487-7558.1%▲ +13.3Playoff odds over 22 days, 55.0% to 57.0%In
Arizona Diamondbacks78-69.5310.5L186-7647.3%▲ +0.5Playoff odds over 22 days, 44.2% to 48.8%Out
Pittsburgh Pirates74-73.5034.5W482-801.0%▲ +0.1Playoff odds over 22 days, 1.6% to 0.8%Out
Miami Marlins72-75.4906.5L379-830.1%▼ -6.9Playoff odds over 22 days, 5.7% to 0.1%Out
St. Louis Cardinals72-75.4906.5L379-830.0%▼ -2.3Playoff odds over 22 days, 16.5% to 0.1%Out
Cincinnati Reds69-77.4739L377-850.0%–Playoff odds over 22 days, 0.0% to 0.0%Out
New York Mets68-78.46610W475-870.0%–Playoff odds over 22 days, 0.0% to 0.0%Out
Washington Nationals67-81.45312L773-890.0%–Playoff odds over 22 days, 0.4% to 0.0%Out
San Francisco Giants62-85.42216.5W368-940.0%–Playoff odds over 22 days, 0.0% to 0.0%Eliminated
Colorado Rockies55-91.37723L461-1010.0%–Playoff odds over 22 days, 0.0% to 0.0%Eliminated

Playoff odds: PaceToWin model · 7d = change over the last seven days

Frequently Asked Questions

How does the MLB playoff format work?

Twelve teams reach the postseason — six per league. The three division winners take seeds 1-3 and the three wild cards take seeds 4-6. The top two seeds get a first-round bye. Ties are settled mathematically (head-to-head first), not with a tiebreaker game.

What do the playoff odds mean?

The odds are the share of simulated seasons in which a team reaches the postseason. They update as games finish, which is why a team's number moves even on days it does not play — other results change the picture too.

What does “GB to WC” mean?

Games behind the last wild-card spot — not games behind the division leader. It is the number that actually matters in a wild-card chase: a team can be far back in its own division while sitting half a game from a playoff berth.

What does the 7d column show?

How much a team's playoff odds have moved over the last seven days, from our own stored history. It is the part almost no other free site shows.

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