NFL Playoff Picture · 2026
Three NFC teams are within a game of a wild-card spot
14 spots are still open.
American Football Conference
Two AFC teams are within a game of a wild-card spot
| Seed | Team | W-L | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Division leaders | |||
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | 5-1 | 95% |
| 2 | Buffalo Bills | 5-1 | 96% |
| 3 | Cleveland Browns | 5-2 | 27% |
| 4 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-2 | 92% |
| Wild cards | |||
| 5 | Denver Broncos | 5-2 | 82% |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 5-2 | 55% |
| 7 | Cincinnati Bengals | 4-2 | 92% |
| Playoff line | |||
| Outside the field · GB to WC in the first column | |||
| half a game back | New England Patriots | 4-3 | 74% |
| half a game back | Baltimore Ravens | 4-3 | 50% |
| 1.5 games back | Las Vegas Raiders | 3-4 | 6% |
| 2.5 games back | New York Jets | 2-5 | 1% |
| 2.5 games back | Indianapolis Colts | 2-5 | 6% |
| 2.5 games back | Houston Texans | 2-5 | 23% |
| 3 games back | Miami Dolphins | 1-5 | <1% |
| 3.5 games back | Tennessee Titans | 1-6 | <1% |
| 4 games back | Los Angeles Chargers | 0-6 | <1% |
Ordered by record, not by odds: the playoff line follows the standings.
National Football Conference
Three NFC teams are within a game of a wild-card spot
| Seed | Team | W-L | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Division leaders | |||
| 1 | Minnesota Vikings | 6-0 | 91% |
| 2 | San Francisco 49ers | 6-1 | 99% |
| 3 | New York Giants | 4-2-1 | 41% |
| 4 | Carolina Panthers | 3-3 | 32% |
| Wild cards | |||
| 5 | Chicago Bears | 5-2 | 80% |
| 6 | Detroit Lions | 4-2 | 68% |
| 7 | Green Bay Packers | 4-3 | 41% |
| Playoff line | |||
| Outside the field · GB to WC in the first column | |||
| level with the line | Seattle Seahawks | 4-3 | 72% |
| 1 game back | Atlanta Falcons | 3-4 | 21% |
| 1 game back | Los Angeles Rams | 3-4 | 39% |
| 1.5 games back | Philadelphia Eagles | 2-4 | 4% |
| 1.5 games back | Dallas Cowboys | 2-4 | 52% |
| 2 games back | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2-5 | 44% |
| 2 games back | New Orleans Saints | 2-5 | 8% |
| 2 games back | Arizona Cardinals | 2-5 | <1% |
| 2 games back | Washington Commanders | 1-4-1 | 7% |
Ordered by record, not by odds: the playoff line follows the standings.
Games to watch
This week's games with the most at stake in the race.
- Cowboys at EaglesBoth teams are in the NFC East
How the race changed
Biggest changes since yesterday: Panthers down 35 to 32%, Giants up 25 to 41%, Buccaneers up 25 to 44%.
- Giantsup 2516% → 41%
- Buccaneersup 2519% → 44%
- Bengalsup 1577% → 92%
- Steelersup 1342% → 55%
- Seahawksup 1359% → 72%
- Panthersdown 3567% → 32%
- Texansdown 2447% → 23%
- Ravensdown 1868% → 50%
- Cowboysdown 1668% → 52%
- Packersdown 1556% → 41%
4 teams did not move by a point.
Biggest swings
Odds, 7 days: how far each team's playoff odds moved over the last seven days.
Games that moved the race
Each badge is what that one game did to the team's playoff odds.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Carolina Panthers
New York Giants beat Houston Texans
Cincinnati Bengals beat Baltimore Ravens
Detroit Lions beat Green Bay Packers
Pittsburgh Steelers beat New Orleans Saints
- Clinched mathematically in: the odds column says In
- In position above the playoff line today, not clinched
- In the hunt below the line, still alive
- Eliminated mathematically out: the odds column says Out
Playoff odds: ESPN's Football Power Index · Updated
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the NFL playoff format work?
Fourteen teams reach the postseason — seven per conference: four division winners and three wild cards. Only the No. 1 seed in each conference gets a bye.
What do the playoff odds mean?
The odds come from ESPN's Football Power Index: the chance, by their model, that a team reaches the postseason. They move as games finish, even on days a team does not play. The 7-day change and the trend line are from PaceToWin's own stored history of those numbers.
What does “GB to WC” mean?
Games behind the last wild-card spot — not games behind the division leader. It is the number that actually matters in a wild-card chase: a team can be far back in its own division while sitting half a game from a playoff berth.
What does the “Odds, 7 days” column show?
How much a team's playoff odds have moved over the last seven days, from our own stored history. It is the part almost no other free site shows.
What does “In position” mean?
The team holds a playoff spot in today's standings but has not clinched it. “Clinched” only appears once it is mathematically certain.
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