Buffalo Bills
5-11st in the AFC East
In position
The Buffalo Bills are on pace for 14-3. The model says 12-5, two wins worse than pace
12-5
projected finish
96% to make the playoffs
no change pts in 7 days
Sep 13 85%96% Oct 27
Updated
Where they stand
Projected final record
12-5
Point-diff wins
11
Games left
11
The Buffalo Bills are 5-1 through 6 games of the 2026 NFL season, a 83.3% win rate. That pace extends to a 14-3 finish, about 14 wins. ESPN's Football Power Index projects 12-5. Records and standings come from ESPN; playoff odds come from ESPN's Football Power Index. How our numbers work
AFC division leaders
Full race| Seed | Team | W-L | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs | 5-1 | 95% |
| 2 | Bills | 5-1 | 96% |
| 3 | Browns | 5-2 | 26% |
| 4 | Jaguars | 4-2 | 92% |
Seeds follow today's standings; odds follow the model.
What comes next
- vs Baltimore Ravens (4-3)
- at Minnesota Vikings (6-0)
- at New York Jets (2-5)
- vs Miami Dolphins (1-5)
Last game
W 33-30 at LV
Oct 18Frequently Asked Questions
How many wins are the Buffalo Bills on pace for in 2026?
Through 6 games the Buffalo Bills are 5-1. At that pace they project to finish 14-3 — about 14 wins over the 17-game season.
What is the Buffalo Bills' projected final record?
At their current pace, 14-3 (83.3% win rate), extrapolated from their 5-1 record. ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) supplies its own projection and the playoff odds shown in the Projected Final Record, in the section under the headline; the two differ when results have run ahead of or behind a team's underlying strength.
Are the Buffalo Bills on pace for a winning season?
Their projected 14 wins is above .500 for the 17-game season, so at their current pace the Buffalo Bills are on track for a winning record. The headline at the top of this page gives their live playoff outlook.
How does PaceToWin project the Buffalo Bills?
PaceToWin takes the Buffalo Bills' current win rate and extends it across the full 17-game NFL season, then layers in point-differential (Pythagorean) expected wins and model-based playoff odds where available. Records and standings come from ESPN; playoff odds come from ESPN's Football Power Index. Details: pacetowin.com/methodology.
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