New England Patriots
4-32nd in the AFC East
In the hunt
The New England Patriots are on pace for 10-7. The model says 10-7, which matches the pace
10-7
projected finish
74% to make the playoffs
down 5 pts in 7 days
Sep 10 52%74% Oct 26
Updated
Where they stand
Projected final record
10-7
Point-diff wins
10
Games left
10
The New England Patriots are 4-3 through 7 games of the 2026 NFL season, a 57.1% win rate. That pace extends to a 10-7 finish, about 10 wins. Records and standings come from ESPN; playoff odds come from ESPN's Football Power Index. How our numbers work
AFC wild card race
Full race| Seed | Team | W-L | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Broncos | 5-2 | 82% |
| 6 | Steelers | 5-2 | 55% |
| 7 | Bengals | 4-2 | 92% |
| Playoff line | |||
| 8 | Patriots | 4-3 | 74%half a game back |
| 9 | Ravens | 4-3 | 50%half a game back |
| 10 | Raiders | 3-4 | 6%1.5 games back |
Seeds follow today's standings; odds follow the model.
What comes next
- at Miami Dolphins (1-5)
- vs Green Bay Packers (4-3)
- at Detroit Lions (4-2)
- at Los Angeles Chargers (0-6)
Last game
L 24-30 at CHI
ThuFrequently Asked Questions
How many wins are the New England Patriots on pace for in 2026?
Through 7 games the New England Patriots are 4-3. At that pace they project to finish 10-7 — about 10 wins over the 17-game season.
What is the New England Patriots' projected final record?
At their current pace, 10-7 (57.1% win rate), extrapolated from their 4-3 record. ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) supplies its own projection and the playoff odds shown in the Projected Final Record, in the section under the headline; the two differ when results have run ahead of or behind a team's underlying strength.
Are the New England Patriots on pace for a winning season?
Their projected 10 wins is above .500 for the 17-game season, so at their current pace the New England Patriots are on track for a winning record. The headline at the top of this page gives their live playoff outlook.
How does PaceToWin project the New England Patriots?
PaceToWin takes the New England Patriots' current win rate and extends it across the full 17-game NFL season, then layers in point-differential (Pythagorean) expected wins and model-based playoff odds where available. Records and standings come from ESPN; playoff odds come from ESPN's Football Power Index. Details: pacetowin.com/methodology.
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